ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF TOURIST NIGHTS IN CROATIA BY 2022
Justin Pupavac, Antonio Badurina
Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management, Opatija, Republic of Croatia
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31410/eraz.2018.567
4th International Conference - ERAZ 2018 - KNOWLEDGE BASED SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, Sofia - Bulgaria, June 7, 2018, CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS published by: Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans, Belgrade, Serbia; Faculty of Business Studies, Mediterranean University - Podgorica, Montenegro; University of National and World Economy - Sofia, Bulgaria; Faculty of Commercial and Business Studies - Celje, Slovenia; Faculty of Applied Management, Economics and Finance – Belgrade, Serbia, ISBN 978-86-80194-12-7
Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management, Opatija, Republic of Croatia
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31410/eraz.2018.567
4th International Conference - ERAZ 2018 - KNOWLEDGE BASED SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, Sofia - Bulgaria, June 7, 2018, CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS published by: Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans, Belgrade, Serbia; Faculty of Business Studies, Mediterranean University - Podgorica, Montenegro; University of National and World Economy - Sofia, Bulgaria; Faculty of Commercial and Business Studies - Celje, Slovenia; Faculty of Applied Management, Economics and Finance – Belgrade, Serbia, ISBN 978-86-80194-12-7
Abstract
The tourist nights variable is one of the most popular measures of tourism demand. In accordance the main objective of this paper is to estimate the number of tourist nights in Croatia by 2022. The analysis of the number of tourist nights in Croatia is based on the methods of descriptive statistics. To estimate the number of tourist nights in Croatia the moving averages methods and method of exponential smoothing are used. This methods are efficient and useful in the short run period. The main finding of this paper points to the fact that the number of tourist nights in Croatia will continue to show a growth trend in the coming period. Findings in this paper provides a good starting point to forecast tourism demand and could be helpful to tourist managers of all levels in making business decisions.
Key words
Croatia, tourism, tourist nights, forecast, moving-averages, exponential smoothin
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